Non-equilibrium Evolution of Water Resources and Future Trend Projections in the Xiabuqu River Basin

Siyu Lai; Baodeng Hou; Nanjia Zaxi

doi:10.6911/WSRJ.202609_12(9).0012

Authors

Siyu Lai Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Baodeng Hou State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Nanjia Zaxi Xizang Bainang County Water Conservancy Team, Shigatse 857300, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6911/WSRJ.202609_12(9).0012

Keywords:

Runoff simulation; hydrological model; climate model; trend projection; Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau; Xiabuqu River.

Abstract

Runoff in the Xiabuqu River Basin, a first-order tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo River, was reconstructed by combining WEP-L with HMETS and a degree-day glacier-melt module. The coupled scheme yielded an NSE of 0.8158, higher than the performance of the individual runoff models. For 1978–2020, the reconstructed annual water-resource volume averaged 754 million m³, but varied considerably from year to year. Rainfall supplied 94.69% of runoff on average, whereas snowmelt and glacier melt made much smaller contributions. Projections under SSP245 and SSP585 indicate a modest decrease in mean water resources over the next three decades. Meanwhile, interannual and seasonal variability increases, suggesting less stable water availability and a greater likelihood of both wet and dry extremes.

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