Asymmetric Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Out-migration Scale: A Study Based on the Nonlinear ARDL Model

Qiyun Wang

doi:10.6911/WSRJ.202607_12(7).0003

Authors

Qiyun Wang Anhui Xinhua University, Hefei, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6911/WSRJ.202607_12(7).0003

Keywords:

COVID-19; Out-migration Scale; Asymmetric Effects; NARDL Model; Dynamic Multipliers.

Abstract

In view of the impact of COVID-19 on the scale of migration, a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) was constructed to analyze the nonlinear asymmetric relationship and dynamic multiplier effect between the number of new positive COVID-19 cases, the number of new discharges, the proportion of quarantine personnel and the scale of migration in Shanghai. The results showed that the model passed the long-term asymmetric test of the long-term asymmetric relationship between the target variables, indicating that the changes of COVID-19 epidemic had an unequal asymmetric effect on the scale of migration. The results of the dynamic multiplier effect show that, in the long run, the increase of new positive cases will significantly change the scale of migration, and the decrease of the number of new discharges may have a significant asymmetric effect on the scale of migration, while the increase of the number of new discharges is difficult to inhibit the scale of migration. Both the rise and fall of the proportion of isolation control personnel have an asymmetric effect on the emigration scale index.

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